On Wednesday, the biggest soccer league in the world returned to action. The Premier League whimpered back to life with a 0-0 draw between Aston Villa and Sheffield United — not the best advertisement for the league, but it is what it is — before Manchester City walked over Arsenal by the score of 3-0, thanks to the all-too-predictable flailings of one David Luiz.
The real main event comes this weekend, with every team in the league stepping back onto the field after a three-month-plus layoff. While German soccer has been back for some time and Spain’s La Liga resumed last weekend, it’s safe to say that the Premier League had been the most anticipated return. With that in mind, here are the five storylines that should define the end of this so-called Project Restart, which will see teams play nine games in about six weeks to finish off the season by the end of July.
Is This Finally Liverpool’s Year? (Yes, It Is)
Before the coronavirus break, Liverpool had struggled like they hadn’t all season. The Reds went out of the Champions League after getting suffocated by Atletico Madrid, and perhaps more jarringly, they also got steam-rolled by Watford at the end of February, giving the league leaders their first loss of the season and ending their hopes of an “invincible” season.
That shouldn’t matter in the long run, however. Liverpool fans have been waiting since 1990 to win the English top division, and they are painfully close as action kicks back up. Two wins, and the Reds win the title. Hell, one win and a Manchester City loss also does it. Liverpool will be the league champions this year, it’s only a matter of when and where they seal the deal.
The more interesting question will be a more esoteric one: Will Liverpool break Manchester City’s 2017-2018 points record of 100? The Merseyside club has 82 points right now, with nine games to go. To tie the record, they will need to win 6 of 9 games; one more point from the other three games, and the record will be theirs. And if they continue their pre-Watford form and win every game? A whopping 109 points might be impossible for anyone to break in the future.
Who Is Going to Europe Next Season?
The most exciting battle in the restarted Premier League won’t happen at the very top, but just below. Manchester City is pretty safely nestled into second place, but places three through nine are, in different ways, up for grabs. In England, the top four teams qualify for the Champions League, while fifth and sixth get to take on the Europa League. Right now, Leicester City seems safe in 3rd, though could be overtaken by Chelsea.
It seems unlikely that either team drops out of the top four, but with the rest of the leading pack nipping at their heels, it’s possible. The battles for fifth and sixth are where it’s at, though: Manchester United, Sheffield United, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Tottenham and Arsenal are all within five points of each other, in that order. With the bigger payout that comes from European competition, it’s going to be vital for all five teams to finish in those coveted slots.
Manchester United is probably in the best position to not just finish fifth but also push for fourth; they’re healthy and will get Paul Pogba back on the field after a long injury layoff. The same applies for Tottenham and their star man Harry Kane, so they might be a good bet to make up the difference. Don’t count out Wolves, though: they have a solid squad and know exactly who they are on the field. Could they put pressure on those richer clubs and qualify for European competition for the second year in a row?
Can Kevin de Bruyne Break the Assists Record and Win Player of the Season?
You won’t find a consensus on who has been the best player in the Premier League this season, with the likes of Sadio Mane, Jordan Henderson and Trent Alexander-Arnold shining brightest for Liverpool, and a few of their teammates also playing out of their minds (you don’t go near-undefeated without great performances across the field). However, what Kevin de Bruyne has been doing for second-place Manchester City is notable enough that it might give him the bump for Player of the Season honors.
So far this season, de Bruyne has racked up 16 assists, though that number includes two assists that were not given by the league; coincidentally, both of those happened against Arsenal, including one in Wednesday’s game. The current record for assists is 20, posted by Thierry Henry in 2002-2003 for, who else, Arsenal. Despite de Bruyne’s Twitter protestations that he actually has 18 assists, he has nine games to rack up five more and take the title.
Given that City is likely going to focus on the Champions League, rather than the domestic competition, it will be interesting to see if de Bruyne gets enough minutes to break the record. If he does, it will be hard to deny him the title, unless Mane or Henderson continue their supernatural form from before the break.
Who Will Secure a Spot in Chelsea’s 2020/2021 Squad?
The biggest winners of the coronavirus break in the Premier League have to be Chelsea. Not only do they get Christian Pulisic and Ruben Loftus-Cheek back from injury, but they made two great signings that can both be qualified as bargains. First, they signed Ajax winger Hakim Ziyech for $44 million, before locking up RB Leipzig striker Timo Werner ahead of Liverpool for only $58 million.
Those two players should be mainstays in the Chelsea lineup next season, which means that the end of this season will be a trial of sorts for the attacking talent on the roster already. Given that Chelsea seems comfortably locked into a Champions League spot, this could be a chance to see what they have in their attack. Pulisic probably has the most to gain from this period, as well as the most to lose from the new buys; the American has had an underwhelming first season in England due to injuries, but he has shown that he fits whenever he’s been healthy.
In a perfect world, veterans like Willian and Ross Barkley would both be phased out for new talent, but they’re still consistent enough to merit consideration. Add in homegrown talents like striker Tammy Abraham, attacking midfielder Mason Mount and winger Callum Hudson-Odoi, and Chelsea suddenly have a lot to work with and some big decisions to make in order to incorporate their shiny new purchases.
Who Is Getting Relegated? Well, Aside From Norwich City …
Finally, we have the bottom of the table. With the last three spots getting shuttled down into the English second division and in the process losing the obscene amounts of money that come from the Premier League’s television deals, the race to stay afloat might be the most important thing left this season. Poor Norwich City is going to be the first casualty just one year after winning the English Championship to secure a spot in the Premier League. They’re currently six points back of what would be safety, though with their goal difference, they would likely need to make up seven points.
Just above the Canaries, though, it gets significantly more interesting. Aston Villa sits at 26 points, while Bournemouth, Watford and West Ham all have 27 (Bournemouth has the worst goal difference of that trio, so currently, they are in the dreaded 18th place). And Brighton Hove and Albion isn’t much safer, sitting at 29 points. These last nine games could swing the financial fates of those five clubs, so who will stay up?
Most likely, Brighton and West Ham will be safe. Brighton has a bit of a cushion and hasn’t been nearly as dire as their point total suggests, while West Ham have too much talent to not scrape by. Watford did pull off the aforementioned shocker against Liverpool, but their star player, Gerard Deulofeu, is out for the year. The safe bet would be on Norwich and Villa returning to the second division for next season, while Bournemouth joins them, but, as they say, this is why they play the games.
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