What to Know About the NFL's AFC South and How to Bet It

The first meaningful pro football game since Super Bowl LVII will take place on September 7, and we’re counting down the days until the upstart Detroit Lions head to Kansas City to take on the defending champion Chiefs during primetime on NBC and Peacock in the NFL Kickoff Game. Each day we publish new content from now until Lions-Chiefs, we’ll be previewing a division in the NFC and AFC and analyzing how likely or unlikely it is that each of the four divisional rivals will go over their projected win total. To help with that over/under analysis, we’ve enlisted Thomas Gable, the director of race and sportsbook at Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City. Today, we’ll break down the NFL AFC South.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 9-8 in 2022, ’23 O/U 9.5 wins

The Lions got all the love last season after making a late push toward the postseason that came up short, but the Jacksonville Jaguars may have been an even bigger surprise after actually making it to the playoffs and winning a game under first-year coach Doug Pederson. Now in his second season in Jacksonville with the stench of the Urban Meyer experiment all but gone, Pederson is setting the bar pretty high for the Jags — and third-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence is about to follow in the footsteps of some all-time greats who’ve played the position. “I want him to be more vocal with the football team overall,” Pederson recently told Sports Illustrated. “It’s O.K. to show your disappointment sometimes. It just demands from others to elevate their game. I saw it with Brett Favre; I saw it playing with Dan Marino. That’s where he can go.”

The Jaguars, who were 3-7 to start the season but rallied to win the AFC South, will go as far as Lawrence can take them. At least on offense, he’ll have help. The Jaguars have good pass-catchers in tight end Evan Engram and wide receivers Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley (fresh off his gambling suspension) and a very solid running back in Travis Etienne. The defense is still somewhat of a question mark, and Pederson’s prowess is definitely more on the offensive side of the ball. But the Jags should certainly win some games, as the AFC South is shaping up to be one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. The Jags also have four games against the NFC South this season, the only division in the NFL that might be as weak as the AFC South. As long as this is a season of progression instead of regression for Lawrence, Jacksonville will be a playoff team for a second straight year, something the team hasn’t done since the late ’90s.

“I definitely think they are the best team in this division, and they’re rightfully favored to win it,” Gable says. “Maybe Tennessee could sneak in there and surprise some people, but I believe in Doug Pederson as a coach. You saw Trevor Lawrence take some major steps forward last year with Pederson. I think he’s going to be even better in Pederson’s second year. I think their biggest issue is the offensive line. That’s something they need to continue to work on and build for the future. The defensive line is also a question mark, but I think this team’s going to be able to score. Putting up a lot of points in a weak division, I would lean toward the over.”

Tennessee Titans, 7-10 in 2022, ’23 O/U 7.5 wins

The Tennessee Titans were the No. 1 seed in the AFC two seasons ago when they went 12-5 and earned Coach of the Year honors for Mike Vrabel, but they took a big step back last season and missed the postseason for the first time in four years because of a 7-10 record. Always solid on defense, the Titans started to see what may be the beginning of the end for star running back Derrick Henry, who turns 30 in January and has led the league in carries three of the past four seasons. The Titans also have one of the least inspiring starting quarterbacks in the NFL, 35-year-old Ryan Tannehill, who isn’t getting many favors from Tennessee’s subpar group of skill-position players.

The Titans attempted to rectify that situation by bringing in former All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins during the offseason, but he’s no spring chicken at 31 and has certainly lost a step. Considering Hopkins was never a burner to begin with, that could be an issue. Using Tannehill to get him the ball may also be an issue, but Vrabel may not have a better option. Second-year quarterback Malik Willis failed to impress last season, and rookie Will Levis, a guy who puts mayonnaise in his coffee, did not beat him out in training camp. It’s certainly possible the Titans use Willis or Levis to replace Tannehill at some point this season, but it’s far from a lock that either of them will have success. Reliant on their running game and a solid defense, the Titans are an anomaly in the NFL. One of the best coaches in the NFL, Vrabel has been cagey enough to make up for his team’s lack of talent during his first five years in Tennessee. The Titans will always be competitive, but their days of competing for a Super Bowl berth appear to be over.

“Is Ryan Tannehill going to be the starter for the whole season?,” Gable says. “We’ll see with Derrick Henry, and I don’t know if his workload is going to get any easier. They have a new offensive coordinator in Tim Kelly, and I think Mike Vrabel is one of the best coaches in the NFL. He makes his team competitive no matter who’s on the roster and what he has to work with in terms of injuries. DeAndre Hopkins will help them, but I don’t think he really moves the needle all that much for them. Their schedule strength certainly favors them — they do have an early bye week, which I don’t always love when you’re betting on season win totals, but I think you have to go over with them.“

Philip Rivers Was Almost a San Francisco 49er Last Season

If the San Francisco 49ers had been able to beat the Eagles and make it to the Super Bowl, they would have given Rivers a call

Indianapolis Colts, 4-12-1 in 2022, ’23 O/U 6.5 wins

For the sixth season in a row, the Colts will open the season with a new starting quarterback under center. This year, it won’t be a washed-up veteran like Carson Wentz or Matt Ryan, but instead will be rookie Anthony Richardson, an extremely raw player with a high ceiling and an equally low floor. The Colts were a perennial playoff team when Peyton Manning was under center but are still searching for a franchise quarterback to fill the hole that was left when Andrew Luck unexpectedly retired. After trading up to select Richardson out of Florida, Indy is hoping he can be that franchise QB.

The team will probably have a pretty good opportunity to evaluate him this season, and perhaps that is all they are hoping to do because it appears the focus will not be on winning football games. Unable to trade or reach a deal on an extension with their best player Jonathan Taylor, the Colts put the NFL’s former leading rusher on injured reserve to start the season and will be without his services for at least four games. That’s probably not good news for first-year coach Shane Steichen, as Taylor would provide some stability on offense for a unit that’s not overly talented and very inexperienced, thanks to the addition of Richardson at quarterback. The Colts have the potential to be one of the worst teams in the NFL if Taylor doesn’t return or Richardson is a bust, both of which could happen.

“What everybody wants to see is Anthony Richardson,” Gable says. “I just don’t know about him overall. He is going to be a work in progress for a long time. I don’t know if he’s going to be fully ready, but we’ll see how it goes. As to the overall decline of this team, you have to look at the offensive line. They’re the reason this team was as bad as they were last year — they gave up 60 sacks, the second-most in the NFL. They have to be better. I have a lot of question marks about this team as a whole. I would lean under.”

Houston Texans, 3-13-1 in 2022, ’23 O/U 6.5 wins

Winners of just 11 games during the past three seasons, the Texans may finally be embarking on a rebuild that will actually work. Much of that will depend on whether first-year coach Demeco Ryans, the architect of the NFL’s best defense last year in San Francisco, can get solid seasons out of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson, the respective No. 2 and No. 3 overall selections in the 2023 NFL draft. The hiring of defensive-minded Ryans, Houston’s fifth coach in four seasons, in an offensive-minded league like the NFL was somewhat odd, but perhaps it will work out — other coaches who’ve departed from the Niners’ system have fared decently.

Because of the talent on Houston’s roster surrounding Stroud (or lack thereof), expectations for the rookie should be fairly low, which may be better in the long run because he’s not really under pressure to win a lot of games. That will aid in his development and help him become the young leader the Texans need. On the other side of the ball, Houston could really use Anderson to develop into a star quickly, as the Texans gave up their first-round pick in 2024 (which will probably be a valuable one) to get him. For what it’s worth, Ryans believes the former Crimson Tide star has the goods. “With Will, I’ve watched him for a long time now, seen a few of his games, but just seeing again the fierce competitor he is,” Ryans said. “Every time watching Alabama, when they needed a play on defense, it was 31. That was the guy stepping up and making a play. Everyone knows the leadership qualities that Will possesses. If he puts those qualities on display this season and Stround plays well, it’ll be a successful year.”

“CJ Stroud is obviously going to make a big difference for them this year and into the future,” Gable says. “I like Stroud. I’m a fan of his from college. I think he can step in and become a very good professional quarterback. With any rookie quarterback, you just need development. Their secondary is decent, but they need to work on the defensive line. This team is still a year away from really being in contention for the division or even a playoff spot. I don’t think this is their year, so I’m going to take the under.”