NFL Kickoff: What to Know About the NFC West and How to Bet It

The first meaningful pro football game since Super Bowl LVII will take place on September 7, and we’re counting down the days until the upstart Detroit Lions head to Kansas City to take on the defending champion Chiefs in primetime on NBC and Peacock in the NFL Kickoff Game.

Every day we publish new content from now until Lions-Chiefs, we’ll be previewing a division in the NFC or AFC and analyzing how likely or unlikely it is that each of the four divisional rivals will go over their projected win total. To help with that over/under analysis, we’ve enlisted Thomas Gable, the director of race and sportsbook at the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City. Today, we’ll break down the NFL’s NFC West.

San Francisco 49ers, 13-4 in 2022, ’23 O/U 10.5 wins

Tied for the second-best record in the NFC last season, the 49ers made it all the way to NFC Championship Game and may have been a healthy quarterback away from being able to knock off the Eagles in Philly to advance to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for San Fran, third-stringer-turned-starter Brock Purdy got dinged up early against the Eagles and the Niners got so desperate that they deployed All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey under center at times.

The Niners expect Purdy to be healthy to start the season and have former No. 3 overall pick Sam Darnold backing him up following the trade of possible first-round bust Trey Lance to the Cowboys. San Francisco also still has key offensive pieces Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle along with McCaffrey. Excellent on defense thanks to an experienced unit anchored by Nick Bosa, the 49ers are on the shortlist of teams that have a legitimate shot at playing in Vegas in the final game of the upcoming season. With San Francisco seemingly knocking on the door of a title for the past half-decade, it would not be a surprise for the team to make some sort of all-in move at the trade deadline.

“I don’t know if it necessarily matters who plays quarterback for this team to be successful. It’s a strong statement to make that they can win with anybody at quarterback, but I feel [head coach] Kyle Shanahan has the ability to coach this team to a division title with any of his three quarterbacks,” Gable says. “They do have a tough schedule with games against the NFC East and against Baltimore and Cincinnati at home, but their defense is going to be just as good as last year and they were a top-five unit. I’m very strong on the over 10.5 wins with the Niners.“

Seattle Seahawks, 9-8 in 2022, ’23 O/U 8.5 wins

One of the biggest surprises of last season, the Seahawks did not fall to the bottom of the NFC West in the first season in a decade without Super Bowl winner Russell Wilson at quarterback and were able to make the playoffs with journeyman Geno Smith handling QB1 duties. Sure, the Seahawks got stomped by San Francisco in the wild-card round, but head coach Pete Carroll was able to get a lot out of a team that had a minuscule positive point differential of +6 on the season.

Smith will return this season with a new contract and will be throwing the ball to perhaps the best wide receiving corps in the league in productive veterans DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and electric rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who the Seahawks selected with the No. 20 overall pick in April’s draft. Seattle’s defense was somewhat shaky last season, but they solidified toward the end and should be improved this year after taking cornerback Devon Witherspoon fifth overall. The health of former Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams remains a question mark, but Seattle projects to be better than they were last season. (So maybe they’ll be worse…)

“Geno Smith will have tremendous receivers to throw to and running back Kenneth Walker III will look to build on his successful rookie campaign,” Gable says. “The defense was what held Seattle back last year when they went 9-8. It should be improved with the additions of Bobby Wagner and Devon Witherspoon. I’m not surprised that people are optimistic about the Seahawks. I would lean over the 8.5 with them.”

Philip Rivers Was Almost a San Francisco 49er Last Season

If the San Francisco 49ers had been able to beat the Eagles and make it to the Super Bowl, they would have given Rivers a call

Los Angeles Rams, 5-12 in 2022, ’23 O/U 6.5 wins

The year after going all-in and paying out the nose with picks and cash on the way to winning the Super Bowl, the bill came due for the Rams as an injury-depleted Los Angeles team limped to a 5-12 finish last season. Matthew Stafford got hurt early on, but he was off to a bad start when he did play and there’s no real reason to think he’ll be getting any better at the age of 35. If Stafford is ineffective or injured again, the Rams only have underwhelming Brett Rypien and former Georgia QB Stetson Bennett as options.

Sean McVay is certainly one of the NFL’s best offensive minds, but the roster he has to work with this season is far less talented than the one that won the Super Bowl over the Bengals just two seasons ago. Aaron Donald, who has also been linked with retirement, is still an excellent player, but there’s only so much he can do to anchor a defensive unit that allowed the Rams to be collectively outscored by their opponents by 77 points last season.

“We’ll see but unfortunately I think Matthew Stafford is one injury or one concussion away from retirement, and who knows when or if that’s going to come. They still have Cooper Kupp and they still have Aaron Donald, but outside of those guys, there aren’t many names people would know for the Rams when you look at their roster,” Gable says. “I don’t give them much of a shot in the division. At 6.5, we’ve been getting pretty decent two-way action on the win total for them. There are many questions about them defensively, in the running game and on the offensive line. I don’t know if Stafford makes it through the year. I would lean under the 6.5 with them.”

Arizona Cardinals, 4-13 in 2022, ’23 O/U 4.5 wins

Somewhat of a disaster last season under previous coach Kliff Kingsbury, who was fired in January, the Cardinals are projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL under first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon, who may have been hired to help oversee a tank job designed to let Arizona draft top quarterback prospect Caleb Williams. If that were to happen, the Cardinals would almost certainly have to trade former No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray, who may not be healthy for Week 1 of the regular season, for pennies on the dollar.

With former star wideout DeAndre Hopkins now a member of the Titans, the Cardinals are fairly thin at wide receiver and their defense is also nothing to write home about, especially now that former leader J.J. Watt has retired. Vegas has installed Arizona as underdogs in all 17 games on their schedule to start the year and there’s little reason to think that will change after the season kicks off. Maybe if Murray is healthy, but that’s tough to bank on.

“At 4.5, the Cardinals have the lowest win total of any team out there in the NFL. They’re going to be a very bad football team overall,” Gable says. “I think they are going to tank so that’s really why I’m looking to fade this team in every way that I can. Murray is coming off an injury and there’s really nobody on this roster. There really isn’t. Gannon came from Philadelphia where he was a good coordinator but he also had really good pieces to work with there. He doesn’t have that in Arizona. It’s low, but I’d go under the 4.5 with the Cardinals.”