NFL Kickoff: What to Know About the AFC East and How to Bet It

The first meaningful pro football game since Super Bowl LVII will take place on September 7 and we’re counting down the days until the upstart Detroit Lions head to Kansas City to take on the defending champion Chiefs in primetime on NBC and Peacock in the NFL Kickoff Game.

Each day we publish new content from now until Lions-Chiefs, we’ll be previewing a division in the NFC and AFC and analyzing how likely or unlikely it is that each of the four divisional rivals will go over their projected win total. To help with that over/under analysis, we’ve enlisted Thomas Gable, the director of race and sportsbook at the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City. Today, we’ll break down the NFL’s AFC East.

Buffalo Bills, 13-3 in 2022, ’23 O/U 10.5 wins

The kings of the AFC East since Tom Brady departed for Tampa Bay, the Bills have made the playoffs in five of the six years that Sean McDermott has been Buffalo’s coach but have never made it to the Super Bowl. That’s starting to become a problem as the Bills have a top-ranked defense, excellent skill position players and one of the top quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen. For whatever reason, the Bills have just not quite been able to put it all together and it sounds as if things in Buffalo have the potential to fall apart as the pressure mounts for the team to go on a championship run.

That pressure is well-deserved as Allen is healthy and has plenty of weapons at his disposal, including mercurial wideout Stefon Diggs, fantasy sleeper Gabe Davis and rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid. McDermott, who will call plays on defense this season, certainly isn’t in the hot seat, but it’s fair to wonder how patient management will be with the 49-year-old if Buffalo comes up short again. The Bills have won double-digit games in each of the last three seasons and were the only NFL team to finish ranked in the top four in offense, defense and special teams last year.

“Coming off a 13-win season, I predict Buffalo to be favored in all but three or four games this year. Even if they lose those four and maybe another two in the division, you’re still getting to 11 wins with this team,” Gable says. “The defense gets overshadowed by the offense, but last year they only let up 19.1 points per game, good for fourth in the NFL. This is a team that’s top five in the league on both sides of the ball. Even with a tough schedule, I’m still going to lean over unless there are some key injuries.”

Miami Dolphins, 9-8 in 2022, ’23 O/U 9.5 wins

A season that was filled with promise got derailed prematurely last year when Tua Tagovailoa suffered a pair of concussions in separate games and was unable to finish out the season as Miami’s quarterback. The Dolphins were able to win enough games to qualify for the postseason and played fairly well without their starting quarterback, but were dispatched in the wild-card round by the Bills. Miami is banking on Tagovailoa staying healthy for the majority of the season as new backup quarterback Mike White, a former Jet, is more effective the less he plays.

To shore up a secondary that will have to deal with some of the top wideouts in the NFL this season thanks to Miami’s schedule, the Dolphins traded for star Jalen Ramsey during the offseason. Unfortunately, the former Ram and Jaguar was hurt during training camp and is expected to be out until sometime in December. Ramsey will be able to help Miami in the playoffs, but the Dolphins will have to stack the majority of the wins they’ll need to qualify for the postseason without him. Miami has enough offensive playmakers, including Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, to do it, but only if Miami’s leaky offensive line can keep Tagovailoa upright.

“Miami is a stay away for me, simply due to Tua. If you believe Tua can stay on the field all season, take the over because this team can probably get to 10 wins with him on the field,” Gable says. “But if Tua gets hurt early, do you really want to be sitting with an over ticket with Mike White as the quarterback? Probably not. Vic Fangio will be running the defense, which we know was a deficiency last season for them. I don’t trust Mike White to get this team to 10 wins if Tua gets hurt. Frankly, this win total is a stay away for me.”

Philip Rivers Was Almost a San Francisco 49er Last Season

If the San Francisco 49ers had been able to beat the Eagles and make it to the Super Bowl, they would have given Rivers a call

New England Patriots, 8-9 in 2022, ’23 O/U 7.5 wins

The bullies of the AFC and their division for two decades, the Patriots have been eating humble pie since the franchise picked Bill Belichick instead of the quarterback who won New England six Super Bowls before taking his talents to Florida and winning his seventh. The jury is still definitely out on whether former Alabama quarterback Mac Jones has what it takes to be Tom Brady’s permanent replacement as he had a terrible year last season after a promising rookie campaign in which he helped get New England to the playoffs. Now in his third year in the pros, Jones will have to show well in order to prevent the team from starting to look for his replacement.

The same can probably be said for Belichick as owner Robert Kraft has made it very clear he wants his team to return to contention or at the very least win a playoff game. Chasing Don Shula’s record for all-time wins, Belichick has not put himself in a very strong position as his moves as a general manager have left the Patriots without any high-end talent outside of pass-rusher Matthew Judon and running back Rhamondre Stevenson. The addition of Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t change that. New England’s defense and running game should be the Patriot’s strong points, but it remains to be seen whether a team without an above-average QB can win in today’s NFL.

“The Patriots have the lowest win total in the division, unfamiliar territory. Mac Jones had a very mediocre season last year with 14 TDs and 11 interceptions,” Gable says. “There was even a little bit of a quarterback controversy there when Jones had a leg injury and Bailey Zappe came. It was a bad experience last year with no offensive coordinator. They only averaged 21.4 points per game. The defense kept them in a lot of the games. They were pretty impressive overall considering the teams that they faced. It’s a very tough division overall and they have some tough games, but I think they can probably get to eight wins. Give me the over.”

New York Jets, 7-10 in 2022, ’23 O/U 9.5 wins

The Jets have dominated NFL headlines this offseason after trading for Aaron Rodgers and making the longtime Packer the focal point of a team that may have had a Super Bowl-caliber roster last season except at the quarterback position. If Rodgers, who did appear to lose a step last season as Green Bay failed to make the playoffs for the first time under head coach Matt LaFleur, is even half of the player he was for the Packers, he’ll be substantially better than anyone the Jets deployed last season at quarterback.

Rodgers will quarterback a team that has Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson, speedster Mecole Hardman Jr. and former Packers Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard at wide receiver. In the backfield, the Jets have promising youngster Breece Hall and longtime Vikings star Dalvin Cook. On paper, they’re stacked. That’s also the case on the other side of the ball as the Jets have at least one star player (Quinnen Williams, C.J. Mosley and Sauce Gardner) at every level of their defense. There is still some question as to whether third-year coach Robert Saleh has the capacity to run an efficient operation, but the Jets should win their fair share of games even if he doesn’t as long as Rodgers can play at a reasonably high level.

“As soon as the Aaron Rodgers rumors started, people couldn’t wait to hand over their money on the Jets. They have an extremely tough schedule this year,” Gable says. “Their first six games before their bye week: Buffalo, Dallas, New England, Kansas City, Denver and Philly. One of the main things that held the Jets back last season was quarterback play. With Rodgers, that should be fixed. He has plenty of guys to throw to. Defensively, they only allowed 18.6 points per game last year, second in the league. It’s just a really difficult schedule, so if I was forced to make a play, I’d probably take the under.”