This is NFL Best Bets, a recurring series in which professional sports handicappers lend us their insights and picks for the most intriguing matchups for each week of the professional football season. Here are our picks for Super Bowl LVII and 10 of the best prop bets for the big game.
You’ve got places to go, people to see and possibly some wagers to make, so let’s get right to it with some help from Thomas Gable, the director of race and sportsbook at the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City, sports betting reporter Josh Appelbaum of VSiN and Odds Assist CEO Dave Rathmanner.
Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5, O/U 51) at Philadelphia Eagles
Appelbaum’s Assessment: The Super Bowl line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops installing Kansas City as a slight favorite. The immediate move was to Philadelphia, flipping the Eagles to a 2.5-point favorite. We saw some buyback on the Chiefs at +2.5, dropping it back down to Eagles -1.5. As a contrarian bettor, I don’t love the fact that the Eagles are the public play and getting 70% of bets. However, I have several key system matches on Philadelphia. Teams receiving line movement in their favor in the Super Bowl are 11-4 ATS (73%) since 2005. Also, short favorites of -2.5 or less are 3-1 ATS since 2008. The Chiefs have a bunch of injured offensive players who are expected to play but might be hobbled. And they’ll also be playing four rookies in their defensive backfield. Meanwhile, the Eagles are fully healthy and enjoy a big edge in the trenches, boasting the top offensive and defensive lines in football. I’ll follow the line movement and take the Eagles on the moneyline.
Gable’s Guess: When you break these two teams down, the Eagles probably hold an advantage at every position other than quarterback and tight end. I think the Eagles win the line of scrimmage in this game They’re going to be putting a lot of pressure on Mahomes and we know he isn’t 100%. He’s had two weeks off to recover, but he’s still a bit compromised. The Eagles are probably as healthy as a team could hope to be at this point in the season. The Chiefs are going to be a true task for them, but I think this Philly team is stacked with Pro Bowlers at every position. I think the Eagles cover the 1.5. I also think both teams will look to limit the possessions. While some people are saying it could turn into a shootout with these offenses, I’m also going to lean on the under.
Rathmanner’s Reckoning: These are two very evenly matched teams on offense. The Chiefs ranked No.1 in the league in yards per game, while Philadelphia was right behind them at No. 3. The Eagles have the advantage on the offensive line, where they rank fifth in rushing, compared to the Chiefs who rank 20th. The Eagles and Chiefs both know how to get the quarterback. During the regular season, the Eagles finished firstt with 70 sacks, while the Chiefs were second with 55 sacks. The Eagles are also relatively healthy for this time of year compared to the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes continues to recover from an ankle injury that could cause him to have trouble eluding pressure. Jalen Hurts meanwhile is one of the best rushing QBs in the league and will have no trouble making plays with his feet. It will be close, but in the end, I think the Eagles get the job done. Play them on the moneyline at -125.
Our Bet: Mahomes getting points may be too good to be true, but taking it anyway — as well as the under.
Coin Toss Outcome: Heads -110, Tails -110
Gable’s Guess: I like to call this a no-brainer prop. It’s for people who don’t follow football, but maybe want to make a bet and get involved. They’ll go with this or the color of the Gatorade or something like that. It’s a 50/50 proposition, but we typically get more money on tails for whatever reason.
Rathmanner’s Reckoning: Heads has come up four of the last five years. It’s tails’s turn to grab the win.
Our Bet: Tails never fails.
Team to Score First Wins Game: Yes -200, No +140
Gable’s Guess: Both teams have had success coming out of the gates and scoring on those first possessions when the plays are pre-scripted. If you jump out to an early lead, I think you have a better shot to win by playing in front and controlling the game. That’s why the “Yes” is juiced. I think it is maybe a bit too juiced, but people are laying it. I would probably lean toward the “No” on this given the price.
Rathmanner’s Reckoning: The team that scores first has won 37 of the 56 previous Super Bowl games (66%). I’m going to play the “Yes” at -200. It is a little pricey, but there is more value on -200 than there is the other way at “No” +140.
Our Bet: Could be back and forth and be decided with a field goal. So, “No.”
Will There Be a Safety: Yes 10/1, No 1/25
Gable’s Guess: This is a very popular prop every year. In the history of the Super Bowl, there have been nine safeties. For years, it didn’t really matter what number you made the “No” as the sharp players would just lay out the money. Now it’s not so easy because “Yes” has come through in recent times. It’s not one I would personally look at that, but it’s one of the more popular props we offer.
Rathmanner’s Reckoning: The “No” is the safe play here, as safeties are not common in NFL games. But at 1/25 odds, there are better ways to wager your money on the game.
Our Bet: Mahomes and Hurts are too mobile. No.
Successful 2-Point Conversion: Yes +220, No -300
Gable’s Guess: You have two coaches that are aggressive enough to go for two when it’s warranted. When you have the two quarterbacks that you do in this game, both are mobile, I think getting +220 on the two-point conversion is pretty good. I would not be surprised to see either one of these coaches go for two so I would lean that way.
Our Bet: A missed extra point could have to be made up. Siding with yes.
What Tony Romo Is Looking Forward to in Eagles-Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII
Romo was behind the mic for CBS the last time we saw Patrick Mahomes and the ChiefsPlayer to Be Voted MVP
Gable’s Guess: Travis Kelce is certainly getting some play with us, but, a lot of Eagles players are getting bet to win the MVP. Jalen Hurts is the favorite, but AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are also getting some looks. The one that would take a gander at just because of the price is Haason Reddick at 30-1. The guy has been on an absolute tear this year. He’s the one who knocked out Brock Purdy in the NFC Championship and he had a huge game against the Giants in the divisional round. He absolutely has the ability to disrupt this game for Philadelphia. I think he’s worth maybe taking a small shot at the price.
Rathmanner’s Reckoning: Travis Kelce at 12/1 is probably the most realistic bet outside of the two quarterbacks. The one area the Eagles do struggle against is opposing tight ends. If he has over 100 yards and two touchdowns, he could be in line to pick up the award, especially if Mahomes does not look good because of his ankle injury.
Our Bet: Kelce. Why not?
Position of MVP: QB -650, Any Other Position +400
Gable’s Guess: Traditionally this goes to the winning quarterback, but Cooper Kupp won it last year. When you go through the history of this award, a running back has won it seven times, a wide receiver has won it eight times, 10 defensive players have won it and one special teams player. A quarterback has won it 30 times, but we saw another position come through last year.
Rathmanner’s Reckoning: It would seem very likely that whichever team wins, the QB of that team will likely bring it home, but -650 is a steep price to pay. I would look to bet both Mahomes and Hurts straight-up to win MVP bets and pass on this prop.
Our Bet: Just no value in betting on a quarterback winning, so will go with any other position at +400.
Score in First 6:00 of Game: Yes +115, No -145
Gable’s Guess: If you’re betting “Yes,” you don’t want a long sustained drive to start the game. Both of these teams can get up and down the field pretty quickly, but it’s kind of a crapshoot on whether or not a team is going to come out and score right away. I would probably lean “No” ever so slightly, but really no opinion.
Rathmanner’s Reckoning: “Yes” at +115 looks like the play here. Both teams have scored on their first drives of both playoff games so far. Having a scripted offense to open the game helps both teams get out of the gate strong.
Our Bet: These teams are aggressive and points will be at a premium. Siding with “Yes.”
Successful 4th-Down Conversion: Yes -500, No +325
Gable’s Guess: When you look at these two teams, the Chiefs were 9- for-12 and the Eagles were 22-for-32 on fourth-down tries this season. Those are very good success rates and only three teams have more attempts than the Eagles. Sirianni likes to go for it. I would look to “Yes” and lay the -500.
Rathmanner’s Reckoning: It is pricey at -500, but “Yes” would definitely be the side I am on. These are two teams that are not afraid to go for it on fourth down and succeed more often than not when they do.
Our Bet: There’s no value, but it seems like “Yes” is the side.
Jalen Hurts Passing TDs, 1.5: O +105, U -135
Gable’s Guess: This really comes down to how many TDs you think the Eagles are going to score. When they are in the red zone, they like to run it in a lot. They have such skill on the ground and Hurts himself has scored quite a few running touchdowns this year. Hurts obviously can throw it as well, but I don’t lean either way on this one.
Rathmanner’s Reckoning: Going with the under here. Hurts can make big plays, but the Eagles have shown a dedication to the run game and I would expect more of the same, especially down by the goal line. Kansas City hasn’t given up two passing touchdowns in either postseason game they’ve played.
Our Bet: The Eagles may have to change things up to win. Could mean more throws for Hurts. Over.
Patrick Mahomes Interceptions, 0.5: O -105, U -125
Gable’s Guess: We know Philly’s defense is good and I think the Eagles will be able to get pressure on Mahomes. He’s going to be looking to get the ball out quickly and if a ball is tipped, which the Eagles are pretty good at, they could make a play and intercept it. I would look to the over and bet he throws one interception.
Rathmanner’s Reckoning: Going with the under at -125. Mahomes is a smart decision-maker. Even if he is not 100% healthy, he still has the ability to make plays with his feet. He is aware enough to just throw the ball away or put it in a spot where only his receiver can catch it if nothing is open.
Our Bet: Mahomes has thrown four interceptions in two Super Bowl appearances. Over.
Conference Championships: 3-1; This Season: 45-50-2
Editor’s note: Betting lines fluctuate throughout the week based on injuries, the weather and other factors. Make sure to double-check the odds before making your wager on Super Bowl LVII or any of its prop bets.
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