NFL Best Bets: Experts Give Their Top Picks for Week 1 Games

This is NFL Best Bets, a recurring series in which football experts and handicappers lend us their insights and picks for the most intriguing matchups for each week of the professional football season.

In this Week 1 edition of NFL Best Bets, Thomas Gable, the director of race and sportsbook at the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City, sports betting reporter Josh Appelbaum of VSiN and DraftKings Network‘s GoJo and Golic co-host Mike Golic Jr. share their opinions on five games that will kick off on the NFL’s opening weekend, including the Cowboys traveling to New York to take on the Giants on Sunday Night Football.

You’ve got places to go, people to see and possibly some wagers to make, so let’s get to it.

Bengals (-2.5, O/U 47.5) at Browns

Appelbaum’s Assessment: This line has been all over the place. It opened with the Bengals listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. With Joe Burrow’s status in question, we saw Cincinnati fall from -2.5 to -1. But once Burrow was given a clean bill of health, the line shot back up to Bengals -2.5, where it rests now. The Browns have great contrarian value, receiving only 28% of bets. Divisional dogs are 18-8 against the spread (69%) over the past four seasons. Week 1 dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 16-4 ATS (80%) over the past two seasons. I’ll wait this thing out to see if the public pushes the Bengals back up to -3 closer to game time, at which point I’ll grab Cleveland at the key number of +3. If it stays where it’s at, I’ll look to play the Browns in a teaser (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through the key numbers of 3 and 7.

Gable’s Guess: The Browns have actually beaten the Bengals five consecutive times in Cleveland, but Burrow started only two of those games. He’s only 1-2 in season openers in his career. Cincinnati is essentially the same team that went 12-4 last season and just missed heading to the Super Bowl again. The health of the offensive line always seems to be an issue for the Bengals, and they’ll need to stay healthy. Cleveland is holding out hope that Deshaun Watson will return to his pre-suspension form. He has plenty of targets to throw to and Nick Chubb in the backfield. Defensively, this team should be better than last year, as they gave Myles Garrett some help with the pass rush. They only had 20 takeaways last year. I definitely see them improving on defense this year after bringing in Jim Schwartz as their new defensive coordinator. He has some pieces to work with. I think Cleveland keeps this close, so I’m going to take the points.

Golic’s Gamble: The Browns’ defensive line will provide a great stress test against this newly completed Bengals offensive line, but I think we’re still weeks away from the best version of this Deshaun Watson-led offense looking like the rust has been knocked off of the $230M quarterback. Bengals -2.5.

IH Best Bet: The Bengals put up points. Maybe Watson finally can too. Siding with the over.

49ers (-2.5, O/U 41.5) at Steelers

Appelbaum’s Assessment: This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is all over San Francisco with 66% of bets laying the points. However, despite this lopsided support, we’ve seen the 49ers fall from -3 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Pittsburgh, with pros grabbing the points not laying them. Mike Tomlin is 51-27 ATS (65%) as a dog in his career, including 15-4 ATS (79%) as a home dog. The Steelers are contrarian (only 34% of bets) in the most heavily bet early game. I’ll grab the points with Pittsburgh +2.5 and also look to play them in a teaser (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through multiple key numbers.

Gable’s Guess: San Francisco tight end George Kittle has remained out at practices. They seem to be bringing him along slowly with the adductor injury he’s been dealing with. Offensively, this Niners team just has so many weapons. We’ll see if Brock Purdy can continue his magic from a year ago before he suffered that injury that a lot of Niners fans think cost them an opportunity to go to the Super Bowl. The Steelers are an interesting team. Pittsburgh really struggled against the past last year. They gave up 29 touchdown passes, tied for the second-most in the NFL. As someone who’s not very high on Kenny Pickett, I just don’t have a lot of faith in Pittsburgh’s offense. Only four teams had fewer yards per play last year on offense. To his credit, Pickett didn’t turn the ball over. I just don’t expect this team to suddenly put up a ton of points. I’m going to take the under.

Golic’s Gamble: Count me among the many who looked to Nick Bosa’s return as the swing state here. The Steeler offense was one of the stars of the preseason with George Pickens mania at an all-time high. While I expect them to be much improved, I think going against this 49ers defense won’t be the place we see that. Niners -2.5.

IH Best Bet: The Niners should be happy to have Nick Bosa back. Laying the points with San Fran.

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Eagles (-4, O/U 45) at Patriots

Appelbaum’s Assessment: This line opened with the Eagles listed as high as a 5-point road favorite. The public expects a Philly blowout and currently 83% of bets are laying the points with the Eagles. However, we’ve actually seen this line fall from Eagles -5 to -4. This indicates wiseguy support for New England plus the points. The Patriots are the top “bet against the public” play of the week, receiving only 17% of bets (on Tom Brady day, no less). If you’re making me pick a side, I have to go contrarian and take the Pats plus the points. However, I’ll look toward the total instead. It opened at 46 and has fallen to 45, with only 48% of bets but 91% of the money taking the under. This screams a sharp play to the under. Give me the under.

Gable’s Guess: The Patriot defense carried this team last year. I thought the offense was embarrassing at times for New England. Mac Jones didn’t have a great year, but how much of that was because of the “no offensive coordinator experiment?” I don’t expect the offense to show much here in the opener against one of the best defenses in football. And by the way, this defense may be even better this year with the two first-round picks they selected from Georgia. Philly’s offense remains extremely dangerous even after losing last season’s leading rusher Miles Sanders. They added D’Andre Swift from Detroit and Rashaad Penny from Seattle. Jalen Hurts still has his favorite targets from a year ago in DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown and Dallas Goedert. I expect the Eagles to handle the Patriots, so I’m going to lay the points.

Golic’s Gamble: Injuries to New England’s offensive line were the story of camp and appear to have leaked into Week 1 worries. The Georgia Bulldog-heavy defensive line for the Eagles will take full advantage under new defensive coordinator Sean Desai. Eagles -4.

IH Best Bet: If you like the Patriots, bet them straight up — betting they’re at least better and taking the over.

Dolphins (+3, O/U 51) at Chargers

Appelbaum’s Assessment: This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Early money sided with Los Angeles, pushing the Chargers up from -2.5 to -3. However, some shops are juicing up the Miami +3 to -115, signaling a possible dip back down to 2.5. The public is pretty much split here with 50% of bets on both sides, which means neither team holds any contrarian value. Week 1 road dogs are 50-35 ATS (59%) since 2014. Tua is 10-5 ATS (67%) as a dog in his career. Herbert is just 9-10 ATS (47%) as a home favorite. I’ll take the Dolphins getting the key number of +3. We could also be looking at a higher-scoring game, as the total has been bet up from 50 to 51.

Gable’s Guess: There are two very good offenses hooking up here in Week 1. The Chargers may finally realize their potential if they can stay healthy. We all know how bad the injuries have been for them. Miami should be an extremely good team if Tua can stay healthy. That’s a big if. The weapons are there for him. Defensively, I think they will be improved under Vic Fangio. Fangio wasn’t a great head coach, but we know he is a good defensive coordinator. Miami has a stern test right away going up against LA’s new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who designed a really explosive passing game in Dallas. I am excited to see what he can do with Justin Herbert and an offense that hopes to stay healthy. You’ve got two high-octane offenses that should be healthy coming into Week 1. I’m going over the total.

Golic’s Gamble: The Chargers authored the defensive game plan that helped set the blueprint to use against the Dolphins at the end of last season. I think Mike McDaniel and company will have answers while providing a familiar challenge on the other side of the ball in Vic Fangio’s defensive debut with Miami. Dolphins +3.

IH Best Bet: No read on either of these teams yet. The over seems like the smart play.

Cowboys (-3.5, O/U 46) at Giants

Appelbaum’s Assessment: This Sunday Night Football line opened with the Cowboys listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is leaning Cowboys, with 55% of bets laying the points. However, every time the line jumps up to Dallas -3.5, there is a wave of Giants buyback plus the hook. Primetime dogs are 117-88 ATS (57%) over the past four seasons. Even better, Week 1 divisional dogs are 18-8 ATS (69%) over the past four seasons as well. Daniel Jones is 26-15 ATS (63%) in his career as a dog. Brian Daboll went 10-2 ATS (83%) as a dog in his first season as Giants head coach. I can’t pass up a divisional dog getting so many system matches. I’ll shop around and get the Giants plus the hook +3.5.

Gable’s Guess: The Cowboys had one of the most potent offenses in football last year, and CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup are back. They also get Brandin Cooks in the offseason. Tony Pollard will get all of the work in the backfield with Ezekiel Elliot departing. I thought he was great last year. He rushed for more than 1,000 yards and averaged 5.2 yards per carry. The Dallas defense has feasted on turnovers the last two seasons. They can generate a great pass rush led by Micah Parsons and added five-time Pro Bowler Stephon Gilmore. The Giants made the playoffs last year, but this was a team that defied expectations and statistics as they continued to win one-score games despite ranking in the bottom half of the league offensively and defensively. The Giants didn’t do much to improve on defense in the offseason, and I expect Dallas to have their way with them on offense. I’m going to lay the points with the Cowboys.

Golic’s Gamble: If this is going to be the Cowboys’ year, it needs to start by setting the tone in the division. New York’s playoff run last year came on the back of a lot of close wins that scream regression. While Daniel Jones, Darren Waller and the Giant offense should take another step forward in year two under Brian Daboll, I think Dallas will come out establishing dominance along both lines of scrimmage. Cowboys -3.5.

IH Best Bet: Think the Cowboys are on a higher tier than the G-Men. Laying the points.

Last Season: 46-53-2; This Season: 0-0-0

Editor’s note: Betting lines fluctuate based on injuries, the weather and other factors. Double-check the odds before betting.