What to Know About the NFL's AFC West and How to Bet It

The first meaningful pro football game since Super Bowl LVII will take place tonight, and we’re been counting down the moments until the upstart Detroit Lions take on the defending champion Chiefs during primetime on NBC and Peacock in Kansas City in the NFL Kickoff Game. In the lead-up to Lions-Chiefs, we’ve been previewing a division in the NFC and AFC and analyzing how likely or unlikely it is that each of the four divisional rivals will go over their projected win total. To help with that over/under analysis, we’ve enlisted Thomas Gable, the director of race and sportsbook at Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City. Today, we’ll end this series by breaking down the AFC West.

Kansas City Chiefs, 14-3 in 2022, ’23 O/U 11.5 wins

When the Chiefs begin their quest to be the first team to win back-to-back titles since the New England Patriots did it in the ’03 and ’04 seasons, Kansas City may be without star tight end Travis Kelce, who injured his knee in practice earlier this week and may be out for tonight’s matchup with the Lions. Whether Kelce plays in the opener or not, it doesn’t sound as if he will miss extended time. That’s great news for the Chiefs as Kelce is a security blanket for Patrick Mahomes and had a career-high 110 receptions last season, tied for the second-most in a season by a tight end in NFL history. For the second straight season, Mahomes will have an unproven group of receivers to throw to as JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are now playing for other teams and longtime Mahomes target Tyreek Hill is starting his second season in Miami with the Dolphins. Mahomes, the seventh player ever to win both NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP in the same season, will be fine no matter who he is throwing the ball to, but the more Kelce is on the field, the better the reigning MVP will be.

Entering his 11th season as the head coach of the Chiefs, Andy Reid is quietly making his way up the NFL’s all-time wins list and has a good shot of passing Bill Belichick and even list leader Don Shula if he keeps winning at the rate he has been since Mahomes took over under center in Kansas City. In the five seasons that Mahomes has had the keys to Kansas City’s offense, the Chiefs have made it to the AFC Championship Game twice and the Super Bowl three times, winning it twice. Winners of at least 12 games per season since Mahomes was installed as the starter, the Chiefs have basically earned dynasty status and their superstar quarterback is only 27. As long as Mahomes is healthy, the rest of the league is in trouble.

“Patrick Mahomes has absolutely owned the other teams in this division,” Gable says. “He is 27-3 in his career versus AFC West opponents. You’d think they should definitely get to 12 wins, but they do have a rematch against the Eagles, they have a tough game against Buffalo and they have Cincinnati on New Year’s Eve. Those games are at home, so they catch a break there. They do have some tough road games including Jacksonville and the Jets early on. But until Mahomes doesn’t win at least 12 games, I’m going to take the over.”

Los Angeles Chargers, 10-7 in 2022, ’23 O/U 9.5 wins

There’s no doubt that Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert can sling the football as no one has thrown for more yards than the 14,089 he has racked up in his first three seasons in the NFL, but the jury is still out on his ability to win football games on a consistent basis. After missing the playoffs during his first two seasons in the NFL, Herbet was finally able to get the 10-7 Chargers into the postseason, where they were promptly bounced by the Jaguars in a game they were leading by 27 points toward the end of the second quarter. Though Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw four interceptions, he also had four touchdown passes and definitely outplayed Herbert in the win for the Jags.

The loss was a big reason why the Chargers hired new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and he will be depended upon to draw up plays that will allow Herbert to throw the ball deep, probably his best strength as a passer. Now in his third year as LA’s head coach, Brandon Staley had better hope Moore can tap into Herbert’s full potential as, similar to the Charger teams that were quarterbacked by Philip Rivers, the Chargers are loaded with talent and have to go further than the first round of the playoffs. Until they do, all anyone will remember is a blown 27-point lead. “We’re coming off a tough loss last year,” said LA wide receiver Mike Williams. “Now we have a lot of guys back who still have that taste in their mouth. We’ll try not to let that happen again. Put our best foot forward and see what happens.” We shall see.

“They have one of the toughest schedules in football,” Gable says. “This team has been bitten by the injury bug quite frequently which I feel has held them back. Can they stay healthy on both sides of the ball to really contend? I think getting to 10 wins may be a little tough with how difficult their schedule is. If there’s one franchise that knows how to lose games they should have won, it’s the Chargers. They find creative ways to lose every season. It’s almost in their DNA. The team has talent and they have the capability to be extremely good, but with the doubts around the health and the hard schedule, I’m leaning under.”

Philip Rivers Was Almost a San Francisco 49er Last Season

If the San Francisco 49ers had been able to beat the Eagles and make it to the Super Bowl, they would have given Rivers a call

Las Vegas Raiders, 6-11 in 2022, ’23 O/U 6.5 wins

Expectations were high last season as the Raiders hired former New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as their head coach and made a huge offseason trade for all-world wide receiver Davante Adams to reunite him with his college quarterback Derek Carr. The move did not pan out as Carr did not make it through the season as the starter in Vegas and was handed his walking papers at the end of the year. Now in New Orleans, Carr has been replaced by Jimmy Garoppolo, who is entering his 10th NFL season but has a record of just 40-17 in regular-season games because he’s played in so few of them due to injury. Playing behind a solid offensive line with Adams and former Patriot Jakobi Meyers to throw to, Garoppolo should be a good fit in the desert as long as he’s able to stay healthy. Given Garoppolo’s history, there’s certainly no guarantee he will.

Garoppolo will be leading a team that had somewhat of a chaotic offseason as running back Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL in rushing last season, held out due to a contract dispute and didn’t report to the club until the end of training camp. Jacobs insists he’s in game shape, but it’s fair to wonder how long it will take for him to knock the rust off. On the other side of the ball, elite pass-rusher Chandler Jones posted a bizarre Instagram story earlier this week accusing the Raiders of a litany of offenses and a post that said he didn’t want to play for McDaniels. Jones, who had 38 tackles, 4.5 sacks, a forced fumble and three fumble recoveries last season, is not a make-or-break player for the Raiders, but his outburst certainly makes it seem as if something is rotten in Vegas. McDaniels needs to keep his house in order, keep Garoppolo healthy and keep the Raiders in contention in what could end up being a very strong division. Good luck with that.

“This is a team though that just found ways to lose games last year,” Gable says. “I was actually surprised because I was more optimistic about the Raiders last year and they just were a disappointment. They should’ve won a lot more games than they did, but Josh McDaniels is not on the hot seat. [Owner] Mark Davis already said he’s planning to keep him there and he wants to make the Raiders mirror the Patriots organization. I think they need a long-term solution at quarterback but this year it’s Jimmy. They have a tough difficult schedule, but I think they could get seven wins. I’d lean over.“

Denver Broncos, 5-12 in 2022, ’23 O/U 8.5 wins

The Broncos weren’t the worst team in the NFL last season, but they were unquestionably the biggest bust as many believed Denver would be able to challenge Kansas City for the division title in the AFC West after trading for Russell Wilson and bringing Nathaniel Hackett aboard as head coach. Both moves backfired as Hackett was clearly not head coaching material and Wilson appeared washed and somewhat uninterested in competing at a high level. Now a member of the coaching staff in New York with the Jets, Hackett was fired midway through the year and offensive guru Sean Payton was lured out of retirement to replace him during the offseason.

If his new coach can’t get Wilson going it’s possible that no one can, as Payton’s Saints teams averaged 27.6 points per game during his 15 seasons as the head coach in New Orleans, the highest for any coach in the Super Bowl era. The Broncos averaged under 17 points last season with Hackett in charge, so even if Payton and Wilson can split the difference and get Denver somewhere in the 22-point range, they’ll be in much better shape as Denver’s defense is solid and will keep them in a lot of games. Wilson should be motivated to show that he still has something left in the tank as the Broncos can save themselves a significant amount of money if they let go of him after this season. Payton has reportedly been given the green light to do as he sees fit at the quarterback position so Wilson had better get going or there’s a real chance he’s going to get gone.

“To me, they’re the most interesting team in this division with Sean Payton now in charge,” Gable says. “I don’t know if we’re going to see elements of the old Russell Wilson. The other question is can their wide receivers stay healthy? I think the defense will still be there. They’re middle-of-the-road in terms of schedule strength. I think if there’s anybody who can get Wilson back on track it’s Sean Payton. They can’t be any worse offensively and I think defensively they should be the same, which is very good, I would take the over.”